Preventive Medicine
January 4, 2021
Calculating the Risk of Asymptomatic But Infectious Person in a Group
We use available state Covid-19 infection rates and other published data together with the binomial distribution to calculate the risk of unsuspected infections in small group gatherings. With our current high level of infections (20 times higher than summer) the risk is 5-10% for groups of 10 or 20. You DON'T want to gather indoors…
January 3, 2021
Why Do We Fail With Covid-19? Antibody Infusions Not Realistically Available
Two monoclonal antibody treatments are conditionally approved by the FDA, seem to substantially help moderately severe cases of Covid-19, and are supposed to be available for use as outpatient infusions to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. In practice they are not actually available, as I found out this weekend trying to arrange an infusion for a…
December 14, 2020
Covid-19 Vaccines Will Help Q2-3, But Pandemic Surging Now
The first mRNA vaccine from Pfizer has shipped. The vaccines are highly effective and will make a major difference, but most reasonably healthy people will not get vaccinated until at least Q2 next year. There also may be availability issues with the vaccines. Meantime, the Covid-19 pandemic is surging and we have to be extra…
October 12, 2020
Covid-19 Q&A
We provide multiple brief updates about the state of the Covid-19 pandemic, the vaccines, the treatments or lack thereof, how you isolate, and what the future holds. Stay the course. Keep your guard up. Get your flu shot. We are in this for a long time.
August 16, 2020
C19: Updated Self-Care and Risk Advice
We are still in the midst of a pandemic that has subsided in Massachusetts but is still very much with us and could easily rebound. We need to remain vigilant in our self care. No real good news. US infections and deaths are at high levels and increasing. An effective and proven vaccine is not…
July 4, 2020
Covid-19: Masks, Hygiene, Distance Work. Updated Behavior and Risk Advice
We are doing relatively well in Massachusetts. Wearing masks, frequent handwashing, and keeping social distance combine as an effective barrier against Covid-19. We need to maintain these practices and stay vigilant. Certain normal activities like going to the supermarket or Costco are low-risk, as is socializing outdoors. Cleaners and service-people are low-risk in your home.…
June 8, 2020
Staying Safe Out of Quarantine, Clarified
We are beginning to leave quarantine. Covid-19 risks are much lower, but still present. We have to keep up our self protection appropriate to the risk, where greater intensity and duration of exposure increase risk. Use of handwashing, appropriate masks, social distancing, avoiding lingering in groups indoors, and home sanitization are all self-protection techniques. It…
June 8, 2020
Covid-19: New Cases and Deaths in MA Substantially Declined During May
During May, we saw a steady decline in daily new cases and deaths in Massachusetts from Covid-19. Masks, social distancing and staying at home largely worked. All good news for a change.
April 27, 2020
Understanding Covid-19 Test Uncertainty and Managing Your Personal Risk
I explain multiple and sometimes complex issues with the Covid-19 epidemic, starting with where we are in the infection epidemiology (new infections in Mass. are leveling off but are still high, deaths are growing). Then I explore the types and efficacy of biological tests (PCR and antibody), and why different people have different personal Covid…
April 19, 2020
Covid-19: Perhaps Some Progress, Worse Coming, Many Unknowns
Today is Day 2 of Week 6 of the epidemic. We need to maintain rigorous self-quarantines and personal protection when outside, but there is hope and some data that the rate of new cases in Massachusetts is slowing. What we need most to get ourselves out of quarantine is an effective drug treatment, so that…
April 9, 2020
Covid-19: Day 6 of Week 4: Where Are We Heading? Understanding the Numbers
The next six weeks will be risky for all of us as the Covid-19 epidemic continues to extend its reach. Nevertheless, I am convinced we can all stay safe with a high degree of probability during this time, whether by keeping in our circles of safety, or by careful use of personal protective gear, providing…
April 3, 2020
Covid-19: Day 7 of Week 3: Worst Yet to Come, Likely Soon
Covid-19 cases in Massachusetts are expanding exponentially, which will continue through this month. Later in April we pass a peak, or just reach a high plateau. Which is not known. Hospitals, physicians and nurses are struggling still without fully adequate equipment. We have no proven drug treatments nor vaccine. Almost all of our members are…